Few events in recent dried fruit history have reshaped a market as quickly as the spring frost of 2025. For buyers working with apricots, whether as a standalone product or as an ingredient in blends, bakery and snack applications, it is worth understanding what happened and where the market actually stands before committing volume for 2026/27.
What happened in April 2025
Global dried apricot supply is unusually concentrated. The Malatya region in Türkiye accounts for around 85 percent of national output, and that output in turn represents the large majority of world trade in the product. In practical terms, the weather in one growing area sets the tone for the entire category in any given season.
In April 2025 a severe frost arrived during bloom, cold enough to damage the vast majority of the region’s roughly 13 million apricot trees. Typical annual output of around 100,000 tonnes fell to a small fraction of that for the 2025/26 season, and global dried apricot production is estimated to have dropped by close to half.
The damage did not stop at that harvest. Drought and heat stress through the growing season compounded the frost, and there are ongoing questions about physiological harm to the trees themselves, which can affect yields for more than one season.
How the market responded
The price reaction was immediate. Average export unit prices climbed from around 4,960 dollars per tonne in 2024 to over 9,000 dollars by May 2026, an increase of roughly 87 percent year on year. Volumes told the other half of the story, with shipments from the 2025 crop falling by more than 60 percent against the same period a year earlier as processors with depleted inventories paused operations.
By early to mid 2026 the market had settled into something best described as firm but waiting. Old crop supply was tight enough to keep prices elevated, while buyers watched the new harvest for signs of recovery.
Where the new crop stands
The more encouraging news is that mid 2026 estimates point to a crop of roughly 67,000 tonnes for the new season, a meaningful recovery supported by hot, dry conditions through the growing and drying period. As of the most recent reporting there has been no new frost or storm damage to the 2026 crop.
Current FOB pricing for conventional unsulphured dried apricots runs in the region of 7.80 to 8.60 euro per kilogram, with organic lots holding a firm premium at roughly 9.30 to 10.30 euro. Those levels remain well above pre-2025 norms, reflecting both the thin carryover from last season and continued strong demand from European buyers.
What this means for sourcing in 2026/27
The first lesson is that single origin concentration is a practical risk rather than a theoretical one. A localised weather event in one region was enough to move global apricot pricing by double digit percentages within weeks. Buyers who have not looked seriously at alternative origins should treat the last two seasons as the argument for doing so.
The second is that recovery is real but the cushion is thin. A 67,000 tonne crop is a substantial improvement on the 2025 collapse, and it still sits meaningfully below normal output. With very little buffer stock in the system, another adverse weather event before harvest would tighten the market again quickly.
The third is that substitution deserves a conversation now rather than during the next shock. At the height of the shortage, buyers moved toward peaches, plums and raisins wherever formulations allowed. That discussion is far easier to have with a product development team calmly than under pressure.
The fourth is that prices may not return fully to pre-2025 levels even on a good harvest. Input costs across labour, energy, fertiliser and packaging have risen independently of the weather, so a complete supply recovery would not automatically restore the old price base.
The bottom line
The 2025 frost is a reminder of how much global commodity trade can rest on the weather in a single growing region. Heading into 2026/27 the apricot market looks considerably better than it did a year ago, but better than a shortage is not the same as back to normal.
Buyers locking in volume for the coming season should build flexibility into their contracts, look at origin diversification where the specification allows, and stay close to real time crop reporting rather than assuming last year’s shock is fully behind the market.
How Waves Ingredients Supports Your Apricot Sourcing
At Waves Ingredients, we source and supply dried fruit, including dried apricots in conventional and organic grades, whole and diced, sulphured and unsulphured, for food manufacturers, bakery producers, snack brands and blenders across Europe.
We stay close to market developments in the dried fruit sector, tracking crop conditions at origin, pricing dynamics, certification requirements and availability, so our partners can make better-informed purchasing decisions.
Whether you are securing volume for existing formulations, reviewing alternative origins after two difficult seasons, or exploring substitution options in the current tight market, we are here to help.
Looking to discuss your apricot sourcing? Get in touch with our team →
